The List: Subprime Lawsuit Dismissals and Denials

The subprime and credit crisis-related litigation wave has come a long way since the first of the subprime lawsuits was filed in February 2007. Now that the litigation phenomenon is now nearly a year and a half old, the rulings on the motions to dismiss are finally starting to accumulate. It appears to be time for The D&O Diary to initiate the latest in its ongoing and ever-popular series of lists, this most recently created one to track the accumulated subprime and credit-crisis related lawsuit dismissals and dismissal motion denials.

The D&O Diary’s newly created list of subprime and credit crisis-related dismissals and motion denials can be found here.

As befits the relatively early stages of most of this litigation, the list of case dispositions is, as of the time of the list’s initial creation, pretty sparse. I will endeavor to update the list as new dismissal motion rulings emerge, and wherever possible I will provide a link to the actual ruling. As I update the list, I will indicate at the top of the list the date of the list’s most recent revision.

The more complete the list is, the more useful it will be for everyone, so all readers are strongly invited and encouraged to let me know about any subprime and credit crisis related lawsuit dismissal motion rulings that are not already on the list.

As of the date of the creation of this post, I am not aware of any subprime or credit-crisis related lawsuit settlements. The settlements will emerge sooner or later, and when the do, I will created a supplemental document tracking the settlements.

Readers who may be unaware of the other lists that I am maintaining may be interested to know about the following lists:

  1. The List of Subprime and Credit Crisis-Related Securities Class Action Lawsuit Filings (which may be accessed here).
  2. The List of Subprime and Credit Crisis-Related Derivative Lawsuits (here).
  3. The List of Options Backdating-Related Lawsuit Filings (here)
  4. The List of Options Backdating-Related Dismissals, Denials and Settlements (here).
  5. The List of Securities Class Action Opt-Out Settlements (here).

I am always interested in any additional information or correcting information that is required to make these lists more accurate or complete. I am also always interested in readers’ thoughts and comments, about these lists or anything else.

Welcome Back: Serial blogger Bruce Carton is back at it again, with his new blog, Unusual Activity, which can be found here. The blog describes itself as "The Securities Litigation and Enforcement Reporter."  Many readers will recall that Bruce is the founder and long-time author of the Securities Litigation Watch blog. Bruce more recently wrote the Best in Class blog. Everyone here welcomes Bruce back to the blogging circuit, and we look forward to reading his new blog.

Speakers's Corner: On June 19 and 20, 2008, I will be co-Chairing the Mealey's Subprime Mortgage & Insurance Coverage Litigation Conference at the Ritz-Carlton in Pentagon CIty, Virginia, with my good friend, Matt Jacobs, of Jenner & Block.

The agenda (which can be found here), includes many distinguished speakers and panelists, such as Andrew Carron of NERA Economic Consulting, Adel Turki of Cornerstone Research, Robert Rothman of the Lerach Coughlin firm, Dan Bailey of Bailey & Cavalieri, John McCarrick of Edwards Angell Palmer & Dodge, David Hensler of Hogan & Hartson, and Mitchell Dolin of Covington & Burling.

Registration instructions and other intormation about the conference can be found here.

And Finally: If you have never heard of the Social Science Research Network (SSRN), then you will want to review the article yesterday's New York TImes (here) discussing the latest in academic anxieties. It used to be all publish or perish, but it is now all about the downloads and links. And you thought your job was competitive.

NovaStar Subprime Lawsuit Dismissed with Prejudice

In arguably the most substantive ruling yet in a subprime-related securities class action lawsuit, Judge Ortrie Smith of the United States District Court for the Western District of Missouri, in a June 4 opinion (here) in the NovaStar Financial subprime-related securities class action lawsuit, granted the defendants’ motion to dismiss with prejudice.

The NovaStar lawsuit, which was first filed on February 23, 2007, was one of the first subprime-related securities class action lawsuits to be filed. Background regarding the lawsuit can be found here. The lawsuit alleges that NovaStar, a real estate investment trust, lacked adequate internal controls, as a result of which the company materially misstated its financial results and condition. The lawsuit followed the company’s February 20, 2007 announcement of disappointing results and deteriorating marketplace conditions.

Judge Smith granted the motion to dismiss on the grounds that the complaint does not adequately plead falsity and does not adequately plead scienter.

In addressing the falsity requirements, Judge Smith noted the PSLRA’s specificity requirements, and observed that the complaint, despite its over 100 pages and over 200 paragraphs “presents a very broad picture, and Plaintiff discusses his claims in generalities – precisely what the PSLRA counsels against.” This, Judge Smith said, allowed the Complaint to “create the illusion of detail and insinuate the existence of fraud, which in turn has made it exceedingly difficult for the Court to conduct the analysis required by law.”

After reviewing the complaint’s specific allegations of falsity and finding them each in turn to be inadequate, Judge Smith concluded that “ultimately, Plaintiff fails to identify a single false entry in the Company’s financial statements, nor does he identify the ‘truth’ that should have been disclosed.” Judge Smith goes on to add that the Complaint “reads more like a cautionary tale from a treatise on business management than a charge of knowing misstatements and concealments.” Companies, the court said, “are not expected to be clairvoyant and bad decisions do not constitute fraud.”

With respect to plaintiff’s scienter allegations, the court concludes that the plaintiff “had not presented facts creating an inference of scienter that is at least as strong as an inference that Defendants lacked fraudulent intent.” The court noted that the allegations are “more consistent with a company and executives confronting a deterioration in the business and finding itself unable to prevent it than they are with a company and executives recklessly deceiving the investing community.”

Judge Smith declined to allow the plaintiffs leave to replead, concluding it “would be futile,” since there is “no suggestion that any material was concealed or that any Defendant acted with fraudulent intent, and there is no reason to think further or different pleading will created the necessary inferences.”

The Court’s opinion is pretty much a clean sweep for the defendants, but it is hard to know what the larger significance of the opinion might be. There are few other subprime cases pending in the Western District of Missouri (for which the plaintiffs’ bar is undoubtedly grateful, given the outcome in the NovaStar case), and courts in other jurisdictions may or may attach weight to Judge Smith’s ruling.

One aspect of the opinion that could be significant if it represents the perspective with which other courts will view these cases, and that is the extent to which Judge Smith viewed this case through the screen of the generally deteriorating financial markets and business conditions. Other judges, like Judge Smith, may be similarly disinclined to find anything nefarious in a company’s failure to anticipate declining business conditions – at least in the absence of insider trading or other more compelling factors.

While there may be cases such as the Countrywide derivative lawsuit which courts may be predisposed to allow (about which refer here), there may be others, like the NovaStar case, where courts prove unwilling to infer wrongdoing from business reverses. At a minimum, the NovaStar opinion is a reminder that merely because a company’s fortunes have declined and the plaintiffs have filed a lawsuit does not necessarily mean that the plaintiffs will prevail or make any recovery. There may be more than a few of the cases filed as part of the subprime litigation wave that also fail to survive the initial pleading hurdles.

The Credit Crunch Effects Yet to Come

In my preceding post, I quoted recent reassuring words from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson about the current credit crunch. Billionaires Warren Buffett and George Soros apparently have a less sanguine view, and there is in any event substantial recent evidence to support the view that, whether or not the worst is over, the effects will be felt for some time to come.

According to news reports (here), Warren Buffett told reporters in Europe yesterday that “I don’t necessarily think we’re halfway through or necessarily a quarter of the way through the effects throughout the general economy. The initial effects are felt by people who really did the silliest things, but you can have a whole bunch of domino-type effects that eventually can get to people who are doing fairly sound things.” Buffett added that “I think there will be rippling secondary, tertiary effects.”

Soros, while willing to concede (here) that the “acute phase” of the crisis may have passed, also said that “now we have to feel the effects,” which he said might “almost inevitably” include recessions in the U.S. and U.K.

An even more pessimistic voice is that of Meredith Whitney, the analyst for Oppenheimer who correctly predicted disaster for Citigroup and others last fall. She recently said (here) that "the credit crisis is far from over" and "what lies ahead will be worse that what is behind us." Dang.

There are already a wide variety of effects that are rippling through the economy and affecting a diverse array of companies, even outside the financial sector. For example, on May 19, 2008 Bloomberg reported (here) that “more than 300 companies are struggling to value auction rate bonds” that they are carrying on their balance sheets. These companies’ auction rate securities investments were valued at $98 billion as recently as January 1, 2008.

“About half” of these companies have “reported losses totaling $1.8 billion as the markets for securities, sold as higher-yielding alternatives to money markets, seized up.” Among the companies the Bloomberg article names as having taken auction-rate securities-related write-downs are UPS, Google, HCA and Teva Pharmaceuticals. But while half of the companies holding these assets may have recognized the valuations issues, the other half have not, and even the companies that have taken some recognition have the issue of whether or not they got it right.

The wide dispersion of these and other credit crunch-related exposures throughout the economy puts pressure on many companies to recognize the risk; companies that delay or avoid recognition may be laying in problems down the road. As one commentator said in another Bloomberg article (here), “the smart people are the ones who’ve identified the problems, put them out there in full transparency, and addressed them by raising more capital. There is still billions of dollars of crap out there that hasn’t worked its way through the system.”

The May 19, 2008 Bloomberg article in which this latter statement appeared is entitled “Banks Keep $35 billion Markdowns Off Income Statements” (here). The article describes multiple financial institutions that are “failing to acknowledge their in their income statements at least $35 billion of additional write-downs included in their balance sheets.” A commentator in the article notes that “keeping the markdowns off income statements just delays the realization of losses.” Indeed, the article suggests that ignored bad debt and postponing the inevitable losses is one of the reasons behind Japan’s decades long economic slump.

Behind every postponed day of reckoning is an optimistic hope that the reckoning might not just be delayed but perhaps avoided altogether. And perhaps things will come right. But the kinetic potential for the kinds of secondary and tertiary ripple effects Buffett projected inheres within every one of these postponements, laying the potential for further disruption when the day of reckoning arrives.

The consequences of these secondary and tertiary effects inevitably will include litigation, as is perhaps illustrated by the lawsuit, described in today’s Wall Street Journal (here), in which Fifth Third Bank has sued an insurer and a brokerage firm that arranged an investment for the bank in the Citigroup Falcon Strategies hedge fund. (A copy of the complaint can be found here.)

Fifth Third’s investment involved a complex life insurance investment, in which the aggregate premiums were invested in a diversity of assets. The complaint alleges that the defendants failed to monitor and manage Fifth Third’s $612 million investment, particularly when changing conditions (triggered by the credit crunch) should have triggered a reallocation of assets. This lawsuit demonstrates the range of potential litigation issues and the breadth of potential litigation targets that may become involved in future litigation. 

In a post on this blog last December (here), I discussed “the truth telling yet to come” in connection with the subprime meltdown. In many ways, the phrase is even more apt now. The dynamic possibilities of the truth telling yet to come include the litigation yet to come, as well. And as Buffett said, we are not necessarily even a quarter of the way through this yet.

A June 1, 2008 article in Corporate Counsel entitled “Wipeout!” (here) describes the credit crisis-related litigation to date and the litigation yet to come. Among other things, the article quotes one commentator as saying that “we haven’t seen most of the litigation yet.”

Top Ten Securities and Corporate Law Review Articles: The Securities Litigation Watch blog (here) has reproduced (with hyperlinks) the list of the Top Ten Corporate and Securities Law Review articles of the year. I was very pleased to see that my good friends Tom Baker and Sean Griffith's article "The Missing Monitor in Corporate Governance: The Directors' & Officers' Liabiltiy Insurer" (here) made the list. I discussed Professor Baker and Griffith's article at length in an earlier post, here.

A Big Fee Anwhere (But Especially in Tajikistan): A May 20, 2008 Financial Times article about lawyers’ fees entitled “Time to Stop the Lawyers’ Clock from Ticking” (here), noted that observers had

expressed concern about the £50m in fees that Herbert Smith, another top firm, expects to bill on behalf of Tajikistan in a dispute over alleged corruption at a state-owned aluminum smelter.

The projected costs, revealed at a High Court hearing in April, would represent 2.7 per cent of the central Asian nation’s gross domestic product, where the average monthly wage stands at a paltry $63.

Dismissal Denied in Countrywide Financial Subprime Derivative Lawsuit

In the most in-depth review yet of a subprime-related lawsuit complaint, Judge Mariana Pfaelzer of the Federal District Court in Los Angeles, in an order dated May 14, 2008 (here), denied the defendants’ motions to dismiss the amended complaint in the consolidated derivative lawsuit filed against Countrywide Financial, as nominal defendant, and against eleven individual current and former officers and directors.

The derivative complaint (a copy of which can be found here) accuses the defendants of misconduct and of disregard of their fiduciary duties, and alleged lack of good faith and lack of oversight of Countrywide’s lending practices, financial reporting and internal controls. The amended complaint also contains insider trading allegations, based on the individual defendants’ sale of over $848 million of their holdings in Countrywide stock while in the possession of material inside information, between 2004 and 2008.

The defendants moved to dismiss the plaintiffs’ derivative claims on the ground that the plaintiffs had not make pre-suit demand or adequately pled that demand was excused.

Judge Pfaelzer began her analysis with some harsh words for the plaintiffs’ complaint, which she described as “prolix and sprawling.” Notwithstanding these concerns, she proceeded to the merits in a ruling that largely went the plaintiffs’ way.

She opened her analysis with the observation that standards to determine whether demand is excused “overlap considerably” with the standard for establishing a claim under Section 10(b) of the ’34 Act. She said that the two issues are “inextricably intertwined,” and proceed to determine that in several material respects the plaintiffs’ allegations satisfy the pleading requirements under the standards of the recent Tellabs case.

Judge Pfaelzer found that the plaintiffs’ allegations create a “cogent and compelling inference that the individual Defendants misled the public with regard to the rigor of Countrywide’s loan origination process, the quality of its loans, and the Company’s financial situation – even as they realized that Countrywide had virtually abandoned its own loan underwriting processes.”

In support of these allegations, the plaintiffs relied on confidential witnesses, whom the court said “paint a compelling picture of a dramatic loosening of underwriting standards in Countrywide branch offices across the United States.” The court said that “plaintiffs’ numerous confidential witnesses support a strong inference of a Company-wide culture that at every level emphasized increased loan origination volume in derogation of underwriting standards.”

The court found further that the plaintiffs' allegations support the contention that many of the individual defendants were aware of the deterioration of standards. After reviewing the “red flags” that should have alerted the individual members of various board committees, the court found that the plaintiffs’ allegations raise “a cogent and compelling inference that the Audit & Ethics committee members were aware of (or proceeded with deliberate recklessness with respect to) the significance of red flags related to increasing delinquencies, negative amortizations, and other signs of loan nonperformance.”

Similarly, the court also found that the allegations “give rise to a compelling inference” that Credit Committee members were made aware of signs of deterioration. The court also found that members of the Finance Committee “either knew or proceeded with deliberate recklessness with respect to, the fact that loans to borrowers who could not pay back their mortgages would ultimately be counterproductive, lucrative as it was in the short run.”

The court also found that plaintiffs had asserted facts to support a strong inference that members of the Operations & Public Policy Committee had acted with scienter. However the court found that “without more, the court does not fund membership on the Compensation Committee probative of scienter.”

In concluding that the allegations taken as a whole support an inference of scienter, the court stated that

independent of any turmoil in the capital markets, the widespread violations of underwriting standards would significantly raise risk of loan defaults. When combined with what the Plaintiffs allege are misrepresentations concerning the quality of Countrwide’s loans, the underwriting issues would ultimately undermine confidence in the secondary market for Countrywide products.

In further support of the scienter findings, the court referred to the company’s aggressive stock repurchase program, undertaken and continued at a time when the company’s share price escalated and while insiders were dumping their own shares. While the defendants offered competing innocent explanations for the insider sales, the court found that the plaintiffs’ “repurchase-related insider trading allegations … are at least consistent with their theory of fraud” and “provide some support” against the motion to dismiss. The repurchase program could be viewed as “an attempt to keep the ball rolling” by steadying the company’s share price “before the weight of the loan origination practices began taking their toll on the company’s operations and the value of its stock.”

The plaintiffs also relied on Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozillo’s alleged manipulation of his Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, about which the court said that “Mozillo’s actions appear to defeat the very purpose of Rule 10b5-1 plans.” The court rejected the innocent explanations offered for the changes to Mozillo’s plan, saying that the factors “do not mitigate against the inference of scienter given the magnitude and timing of Mozillo’s trading,” which amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars in stock trading proceeds.

After this detailed review of the scienter requirements and allegations, the court quickly worked through the other pleading requirments and proceeded to the ultimate question whether the plaintiffs’ allegations satisfied the demand futility standards. In considering this issue, the court again reviewed the allegations that the various board committee members were aware of the deteriorating loan practices yet failed to take corrective actions.

Since the same individuals who would have had to have considered the litigation demand were involved in these alleged circumstances, the court found that “a majority of the directors are ‘interested’” and therefore demand is excused (except as pertains to a category of claims relating to Mozillo’s compensation). The court also dismissed out two individual defendants based on the specific allegations relating to their individual involvement. The court directed the plaintiffs to file an amended complaint consistent with the order within 20 days.

At one level, Judge Pfaelzer’s order is a reflection of the specific allegations in the Countrywide complaint, particularly as pertains to the allegations of deteriorating underwriting and loan origination practices, and as pertains to the Mozillo’s insider trading. The outcome was also influenced by the allegations based on the factual observations of numerous confidential witnesses. To that extent, Judge Pfaelzer’s order may simply be a reflection of the alleged circumstances of the specific case and have relatively little potential significance for other pending subprime-related cases.

However, there may yet be a sense in which this order is relevant for other cases, and that is the court’s clear discomfort for the allegedly deteriorating practices in contrast to the company’s statements and the insiders’ stock sales. Other pending cases contain allegations pertaining to the excesses of the subprime lending marketplace, and other cases also contain allegations of insiders profiting while underwriting and loan origination practices deteriorated.

While there is at least this potential relevance of the Countrywide case for other subprime-related litigation, the larger significance is simply its primacy. Because it is one of the first cases with a detailed review of the allegations, the courts’ apparent receptivity to the plaintiffs’ allegations may be significant. Other defendants in other cases may be able to establish the insufficiency of the plaintiffs’ allegations, but the Countrywide decision could be interpreted to suggest that the defendants will have to overcome courts’ receptivity to similar allegations.

Judge Pfaelzer’s analysis of the allegations concerning Mozillo’s Rule 10b5-1 plan are also interesting, because they underscore the extent to which courts will be wary of apparent attempts to use plans to shield improper trading. When the dust settles on this case, there likely will be a fruitful opportunity to consider the lessons from these circumstances for proper and improper uses and structures of Rule 10b5-1 plans.

The WSJ.com Law Blog has a interesting post here discussing the background and context of Judge Pfaelzer’s opinion.

Special thanks to a loyal reader who prefers anonymity for providing a copy of the order.

Subprime Litigation: Asset Valuation and Disclosure Problems

As the markets for various types of subprime-related assets have seized up, many companies find themselves faced with complicated issues concerning asset valuation and disclosure. These issues have in turn both subjected companies to the possibility of litigation and encouraged investors to target the entities and institutions that sold them the assets in the first place. The extent of the asset valuation and disclosure issues suggests that the turmoil, and the ensuing litigation, will continue to spread.

One example where the valuation and disclosure issues have already led to litigation involves the securities class action lawsuit filed in the United States District Court for the District of Minnesota on March 28, 2008 against MoneyGram International and certain of its directors and officers. A copy of the plaintiffs’ attorneys’ press release can be found here and a copy of the complaint can be found here.

The complaint against Moneygram relates to the company’s January 14, 2008 press release (here) in which the company stated that it had completed its valuation of its investment portfolio as of November 30, 2007, as a result of which the company said that it had “experienced net unrealized losses of $571 million from September 30, 2007, bringing cumulative net unrealized losses to $860 million.” The company also announced that it has commenced a process to “realign is portfolio away from asset-backed securities,” as a result of which it had realized in January a loss of $200 million on asset sales of $1.3 billion.

According to the plaintiffs’ lawyers’ press release, the complaint alleges that the defendants “concealed from the investing public” that:

(a) the Company lacked requisite internal controls to ensure that the reserves for the Company’s investments in asset-backed securities were adequate, and, as a result, the Company’s projections and reported results issued during the Class Period were based upon defective assumptions and/or manipulated facts; and (b) the Company concealed the extent of its potential losses arising from its exposure to asset-backed securities containing uncollectible debt.

The prospect of securities litigation arising from asset valuation and disclosure issues is a potentially very substantial problem, because so many companies are facing these same kinds of issues due to asset-backed securities in their investment portfolio. Similarly, companies holding auction rate securities are facing particularly challenging valuation and disclosure issues, and as I have previously noted (most recently here), these challenges are not limited to companies in the financial sector, but indeed are widely dispersed throughout the economy. For example, a March 28, 2008 Wall Street Journal article entitled “’Auction Rates’ Clip Tech Firms’ Profits” (here) discusses the financial impacts that a variety of technology companies are facing because of the companies’ inability to convert their auction rate securities holdings into cash.

One measure of the depth of the problems arising from the failure of the auction rate securities market is that it is not just companies whose balance sheets are under pressure. Many households and individuals are also now about to recognize their own personal balance sheet hits due to the auction rate problem. According to a March 29, 2008 Wall Street Journal article entitled “UBS Plans Auction-Rate Price Cut” (here), UBS is going to lower the values of the auction rate securities held by its customers. The reduced values, which will be based on computer models and “will range from a few percentage points to more than 20%” will be reflected on their customers’ forthcoming statements.

As I have previously noted (most recently here), investors have already filed a number of class action lawsuits against the companies that sold them auction rate securities, and on March 27, 2007, Citibank became the latest to be sued in a securities class action on behalf of investors for its sale of auction rate securities (see press release here and complaint here). The reduction of the carrying values of auction rate securities on investors’ statements will likely further bestir investors and could lead to even more litigation. But making no adjustments could create a different set of issues and lead to greater problems later.

The question of how best to reflect the valuation of assets for which there is no current market is one that potentially affect participants at all levels of the economy. And while there undoubtedly will be more lawsuits on behalf of investors against the companies that sold them the auction rate securities, a potentially greater litigation threat may arise from shareholders who may contend they were misled about a company’s balance sheet exposure to these kinds of assets. There could well be a great deal of litigation in which it is alleged, as asserted in the complaint in the MoneyGram case, that a company failed to disclose the “extent of its potential losses arising from its exposure to asset-backed securities containing uncollectible debt.”

The extent of the problem shall be revealed in the fullness of time. But meanwhile the subprime-related securities class action litigation still continues to accumulate. With the addition of the MoneyGram and Citigroup lawsuits, my running tally of subprime-related securities lawsuits (which can be accessed here) now stands at 61, 23 of which have been filed in 2008, and seven of which are filed on behalf of auction rate investors against the companies who sold them the securities.

Subprime Litigation Wave Hits National City Corporation

On January 22, 2008, National City Corporation, a Cleveland-based bank holding company, announced (here) a fourth quarter loss of $333 million, including a write-down of $181 million on its mortgage business and a $691 million provision for credit losses. On January 24, 2008, the company was hit with a securities class action lawsuit.

According to their January 24 press release (here), the plaintiffs' counsel filed a complaint (here) against the company and certain of its directors and officers in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Ohio.

According to the plaintiffs' counsel's press release, the complaint alleges that:

In October 2007, National City announced a big decline in earnings due to losses related to its mortgage business but assured the market about the dividend. Then, on January 2, 2008, the Company announced a 49% reduction in its quarterly dividend to $0.21 per share from $0.41 per share. On this news, National City's stock dropped from $16.46 per share to as low as $15.45 per share, closing at $15.59 per share on January 2, 2008 on volume of over 12.7 million shares.

The true facts, which were known by defendants but concealed from the investing public during the Class Period, were as follows: (a) the subprime mortgages on the Company's books were a much bigger risk to the Company's financial position than represented; (b) the Company was failing to adequately reserve for mortgage-related exposure, causing its balance sheet and financial results to be artificially inflated; and (c) defendants had no reasonable basis to make favorable predictions
about the Company's future dividend payments and future financial performance given the problems in the business.

I have added the National City lawsuit to my running tally of subprime-related securities lawsuits, which can be found here. The addition of the National City lawsuit brings the total number of subprime-related securities lawsuits to 40. It is also the third subprime-related securities lawsuit to have been filed already in 2008 - further proof that the subprime lawsuits in 2007 were something more than a 'one time event."

"CDO Squared" Securities Lawsuit Hits MBIA

On January 11, 2008, MBIA became the latest bond insurer to be named as a defendant in a subprime-related securities class action lawsuit. Bond insurers ACA Capital Holdings (about which refer here), Security Capital Assurance (refer here) and Radian Group (refer here) have previously been named in subprime-related securities lawsuits. MBIA is one of the leading triple-A rated bond insurers, and the company's difficulties may represent among the more significant developments arising from the subprime meltdown. A copy of the plaintiffs' lawyers January 11, 2008 press release regarding the MBIA securities lawsuit can be found here, and a copy of the securities lawsuit complaint, which also names MBIA's CEO and CFO as defendants, can be found here.

In addition to the securities lawsuit, MBIA's benefit plan fiduciaries were also hit with a lawsuit under ERISA, filed on behalf of MBIA employees in connection with company stock held in the employees' 401(k) plan. The plaintiffs' counsel's January 11, 2008 press release about the ERISA lawsuit can be found here. The company also disclosed on January 8, 2008 (here) that the SEC and the New York Insurance Department have started informal inquiries into the company's recent disclosures and a deal the company struck with Warburg Pincus.

The centerpiece of the securities lawsuit complaint is the company's December 19, 2007 detailed accounting (here) of its exposures to collateralized debt obligations, a disclosure that contained information the complaint describes as a "bombshell." According to the complaint, in the December 19 release, the company "disclosed for the first time that it faced $8.1 billion of exposure from insuring some of the riskiest securities in the marketplace - collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) comprised of other CDOs (so-called "CDOs squared" securities) whose underlying collateral included residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS)." The complaint alleges that "with this disclosure, investors learned for the first time that Defendants had placed their triple-A rating in jeopardy."

The company's December 20, 2007 press release (here) attempted to respond to the market criticism and reaction that followed the December 19 disclosure. Nevertheless, the company later came under further pressure when it announced on January 9, 2008 (here) that the company actually held $9 billion of the CDO squared securities, rather than the $8.1 disclosed just weeks before and that, according to the complaint, "nearly 60% of these securities were originated in 2006 or later (which was material because recent vintages are defaulting with greater consistency) and that the portfolio had already caused a $200 million impairment."

The MBIA securities lawsuit is the first subprime-related securities lawsuit of 2008. In light of the magnitude and recency of the events involved in the lawsuit, it seems likely that there will be further developments, both with respect to the company itself and in general. While it is obviously still quite early, the MBIA lawsuit does at least suggest that the 2007 subprime-related securities litigation wave was not, as some have suggested, a one-time event.

I have in any event added the MBIA lawsuit to my running tally of subprime-related securities lawsuits, which may be found here. With the addition of the MBIA lawsuit, the current tally (including subprime-related securities lawsuits pending against the credit rating agencies and against residential home construction companies) stands at 38. With the addition of the MBIA ERISA lawsuit, the number of subprime-related ERISA lawsuits stands at 9.

My prior discussion of bond insurers' exposure to subprime risk, including a detailed discussion of the securities lawsuit that has been filed against ACA Capital Holding, can be found here.

CDOs Squared: I have previously noted (most recently here) that among the contributing factors to the subprime meltdown are the complicated investment instruments into which mortgage loans were repackaged and sold in the global financial marketplace. The MBIA complaint's allegations about CDOs squared underscore this point rather impressively. MBIA (and other bond insurers) played a particularly critical role in the viability of these instruments, since MBIA's willingness to provide insurance against the instruments' default enabled the instruments to carry MBIA's AAA rating making them acceptable even to conservative investors.

Readers who like me do not feely fully briefed on CDOs squared may want to review this 2005 Nomura Securities publication (here), which explains that a CDO squared security is a type of collateralized debt obligation where the underlying portfolio consists of other types of CDOs.

According to the article,

Synthetic CDOs-squared offer investors higher spreads than single-layer CDOs but also may present additional risks. These two-layer structures somewhat increase exposures to certain risks by creating performance "cliffs." That is, seemingly small changes in the performance of underlying reference credits can cause larger changes in the performance of a CDO-squared.

Of particular interest to bond insurers (and investors in a bond insurer that happens to insure CDOs squared) is that CDOs squared "display particular sensitivity" to "frequency of defaults." Based on a very detailed analysis, the Nomura article concludes that "higher default rates affect a CDO-squared tranche much more dramatically than the underlying CDO tranche." The report goes on to state, among other things that, that "for example, the probability of a [CDO squared] tranche wipeout goes from 0.6% to 41.2% as the [CDO tranche] default rate goes from 1.0% to 1.5%."

Snakes and Ladders: The Nomura article's discussion of the risks involved with CDOs squared brings to mind Warren Buffett's frequent diatribes against derivative securities. For example, in his letter to shareholders in the 2002 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report (here), Buffett referred to derivatives as "time bombs" and as "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal." (Full disclosure: I own Class B Berkshire shares, although not nearly as many as I wish I did.)

I have struggled over the years to understand the vehemence of Buffett's condemnation of derivatives, but I gained fresh insight recently when I read Roger Lowenstein's excellent book When Genius Failed, which recounts the formation, growth and dramatic collapse of Long-Term Capital Management. The events described in the book took place a decade ago, but many of the same events, circumstances, complications, and even many of the same people, were involved then as are involved in the current subprime meltdown.

LTCM's story is far more complicated than can easily be recounted here, but the most critical facts are that at the beginning of 1998, the firm had equity of $4.72 billion, but as a result of leverage, carried balance sheet assets of around $129 billion. Even more astonishing were the firm's off-balance sheet derivative positions, which had a notional value of $1.25 trillion. Adverse global financial circumstances in August and September 1998 put LTCM on the wrong side of a huge number of arbitrage bets, and put the firm in a position where it had to liquidate positions, only to find that there were no willing buyers. Lack of liquidity and the firm's highly leveraged position not only threatened the firm with failure, but, owing to LTCM's massive indebtedness, threatened a constellation of financial institutions with enormous losses. The Federal Reserve became concerned that the ensuing fallout could cause panic and damage the financial markets.

The scramble to protect the financial markets from an LTCM meltdown involved a veritable who's who of the financial world, including the redoubtable Mr. Buffett. Reading about Buffett's role in the LTCM crisis gave me some insight into his loathing of derivative securities.

First, the book makes it clear that in connection with Berkshire's then-pending acquisition of General Reinsurance Corporation (which ultimately closed in December 1998), Buffett was worried about Gen Re's involvement in certain LTCM investments on which Gen Re had counterparty exposure or for which Gen Re had provided financing. (Full disclosure: At the time, I was an employee of a Gen Re operating subsidiary.)

In addition, Buffett was also deeply involved in a Goldman Sachs-led proposed buyout of LTCM, that would have given the acquirers control of LTCM's assets for $250 million, a small fraction of the assets' putative (and as events turned out, ultimate) value. The potential buyout did not come off, in part because of Buffett's inaccessibility at critical moments while he was vacationing in the Pacific Northwest with Bill Gates.

As a result of these events, Buffett apparently had a window into LTCM's portfolio and apparently came away with an unfavorable view of derivative securities. Indeed, Buffett specifically references LTCM's near meltdown and disparages some of LTCM's derivative investments ( particularly "total return swaps") in the 2002 Berkshire shareholders letter linked above.

As an aside, it is worth noting that Buffett is only one of a host of people now prominent in the subprime crisis who played one role or another in the LTCM bailout. For example, John Thain, recently given the assignment of turning around Merrill Lynch, was deeply involved in the LTCM bailout efforts as CFO of Goldman Sachs. Jon Corzine, now the democratic governor of New Jersey, was also involved in many of the discussions. James Cayne, who just this past week resigned as head of Bear Stearns as a result of that company's subprime woes, played a significant although not particularly constructive role in the LTCM bailout as well.

Although Lowenstein's book refers to events from ten years ago, it rewards reading now, because it shows how some of the same recurring behaviors drive occasional excesses and trigger periodic crises in the financial markets. Indeed, the recurrence of many of the same circumstances and names today gives the impression that the global financial marketplace represents nothing more than an elaborate game of Snakes and Ladders, where the same money, investments and people slide around in certain prescribed paths and wind up ahead or behind as the game unfolds.

There is also a certain symmetry between the events surrounding LTCM's near-demise and the current subprime crisis; once again, for example, Buffett is cast in the role of potential rescuer, in particular now with respect to bond insurers (about which refer here). But the more important connection between the two sets of circumstances is the role of complicated derivative securities in contributing to the respective crises. Indeed, given the role that these immensely complicated derivative securities, such as CDOs squared , are playing in the current subprime crisis, Buffett's comments in the 2002 shareholders letter about the dangers of derivative securities may be required reading for anyone who wants to understand what is going on today.

 

A Reflection on Winter in the Suburbs: Am I the only one who thinks the very idea of "decorative cabbages" is ridiculous?

A Closer Look at the 2007 Subprime-Related Securities Lawsuits

In its 2007 year-end study of securities class action trends (here), NERA Economic Consulting noted that the "sharp increase" in 2007 securities lawsuit filings was "driven in part by litigation related to subprime lending," an observation I have also noted elsewhere. Given the importance of the subprime lawsuit filings to the overall 2007 securities lawsuit picture, it is worth taking a closer look at the 2007 subprime-related securities lawsuits.


As a preliminary matter, it should be noted that I have counted 34 subprime-related securities lawsuits during 2007 (as detailed here), whereas in its year-end report NERA stated that there were 38 subprime-related lawsuits. The difference may be merely definitional, as it became harder to classify cases as the year progressed. NERA may also have superior information, a not unlikely possibility given that my data are derived solely from publicly available sources. In any event, readers should be aware that the analysis in this post is limited to the 34 lawsuits in my tally.

The 34 companies sued in the subprime-related lawsuits represent 15 different Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Codes. The largest concentration of cases is in the 6798 SEC Code (Real Estate Investment Trusts), which accounted for 11 of the34 cases. Fully 30 of the 34 companies sued fall within the 6000 SIC Code Series (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate).

Another way to look at the companies is by industry, rather than by SIC Code. As might be expected, there are more companies is in the banking/mortgage lending business than any other industry; this group accounted for 12 of the companies sued. Other industry groups with multiple companies represented included residential home builders (5), REITs (5), Bond Insurers (3) and Credit Rating Agencies (2). Other industries represented with one company each include mortgage investment companies, mutual funds, and savings and loans. (The list of companies also includes Freddie Mac, which as a government sponsored entity is hard to classify.)

The subprime-related lawsuits were filed in 15 different federal district courts, with the largest number filed in the Southern District of New York (11). Other courts with multiple filings include the Central District of California (6), Eastern District of Pennsylvania (3) and the Northern District of California (2).

The list of companies sued includes two that are domiciled overseas: UBS (Switzerland) and Security Capital Assurance (Bermuda). One of the subprime-cases - the one involving Security Capital Assurance - involves IPO-related allegations.

The 34 subprime-related lawsuits were filed between February and December 2007, with at least one lawsuit filed in each month during that period. There were two in February, four in March, two in July, eight in August, four in September, two in October, five in November, and four in December.

In other words, the subprime-related lawsuits, while concentrated in the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate SIC Codes, represent a number of different industries. The lawsuits have been filed in a number of different courts, but with a concentration in New York and Los Angeles. The lawsuit filings were spread (albeit somewhat unevenly) throughout the year. These observations seem relevant to any analysis of what the cases might represent within the larger context of securities filing trends.

Mortgage Investigations Face Challenges: A December 27, 2007 Washington Post article entitled "Mortgage Probes Face Big Hurdles" (here) notes that as problems have emerged following the subprime mortgage meltdown, "government subpoenas are flying, investor lawsuits are mounting, and in the nastiest cases, businesses are pointing the finger of blame at one another. "

But despite the almost irrepressible urge to find scapegoats, investigators could face significant hurdles due to the "tangled system" of regulatory authority and oversight. In addition, another consideration that could stymie investigators, and that could be a factor in the many investor lawsuits, is that "many of the assets that tumbled were explicitly marketed as involving borrowers with trouble credit histories, alerting investors that they were high-risk bets."

White Collar Fraud is Not Just Wrong, It's Insane!: Regular readers may recall my prior post (here) about former Crazy Eddie CFO (and convicted felon) Sam E. Antar, who is now making a name for himself warning others about how to spot fraud. A lengthy December 25, 2007 Fortune Magazine article entitled "Takes One to Know One" (here) takes a closer look at Antar. and his current campaign to combat fraud.

The detailed article reviews the Crazy Eddie fraud in depth and explains how Antar has become a roving lecturer on accounting fraud. The article summarizes Antar's strategy for finding fraud as "sustained and disciplined paranoia." He also says that the only safeguards against accounting fraud that work are "stringent disclosure rules for companies and better fraud training for auditors."

Interested readers may want to check out Antar's blog, White Collar Fraud (here), for further commentary from Antar, who signs his blog posts as follows: "Respectfully, Sam E. Antar (former Crazy Eddie CFO and convicted felon)."